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# Australian rooftop solar on course for record year as AEMO eyes 87GW by 2050
- URL: https://www.energyinsider.io/australia-rooftop-solar-record-year-aemo-87gw-2050/
- Published: 2026-11-07T10:40:06.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-07T10:40:06.000Z
- Description: About 4m Australian homes and small businesses now have rooftop solar. Batteries, policy support and high power prices are reshaping the grid, and the market operator expects capacity to more than quadruple by 2050.
- Author: Editorial Team
- Tags: Solar, Australia/Oceania, Energy Storage, Grid, #energyinsider-auto

Australia is on track for a record year of rooftop solar installations, with about 4m homes and small businesses now generating their own power, according to reporting by The Guardian.

Around 36% of households have a system. The Clean Energy Regulator says postcode 3029 in western Melbourne has the most installations in the country, with more than 28,000 systems since 2001.

## Record quarter

The Clean Energy Council, an industry group, said records were broken in every Australian state in the second quarter of this year. A total of 102,234 rooftop systems were installed, the highest quarterly figure on record.

Rooftop solar supplied almost 14% of Australia's electricity over the past 12 months, up from less than 3% a decade ago. Over the same period, coal's share fell from 75% to 50%.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said rooftop solar had "fundamentally changed the electricity system". It said demand for grid electricity had fallen, and wholesale prices had reached zero or turned negative in the middle of the day.

In the national electricity market, which supplies more than 85% of the population, rooftop solar routinely provides over 40% of midday demand, and has peaked above 60% on some days. In winter it still covers about 10% of consumption. New rules now require retailers in most areas to offer customers three hours of free electricity a day.

## What is driving uptake

Sunshine is only part of the explanation. The federal government has issued certificates for rooftop solar for more than 20 years, reducing upfront costs. The scheme was extended in October to cover larger systems on corporate premises.

Tristan Edis, director of analysis and advisory at Green Energy Markets, pointed to relatively high power prices and lighter regulation than in countries such as the US. He also cited low-density housing, which provides ample roof space.

## Batteries change the evening peak

A federal programme has supported half a million home battery installations since July 2025\. Edis said the traditional evening peak is being flattened as solar-charged batteries discharge, adding that this would "destroy the economics of fossil fuel generators".

A report from the government's corporate watchdog found households with solar and batteries had bills 20% to 52% lower than regular customers. Households in virtual power plants, where a retailer can link and control battery output, had bills 57% to 63% lower.

## Forecast growth

AEMO's biennial blueprint for the likely development of the system forecasts rooftop capacity rising from 20GW today to 87GW by 2050, "driven by ever-falling costs". That would mean 56% of homes with rooftop solar, two-thirds of them with batteries. In that scenario, rooftop solar alone would supply about 27% of the country's electricity.

The operator said the challenge is "not simply accommodating more solar panels but making the most of the electricity they produce".

Edis's own projections suggest higher figures are possible. He and other analysts see commercial buildings and rental units as a "missing middle" where better rules could unlock further growth. He also sees electric vehicles becoming a growing motivator for solar purchases.

## International pledge

At a preparatory meeting in Fiji ahead of November's UN climate talks in Turkey, Australia became the first country to endorse a voluntary global pledge. It aims to double the number of homes with rooftop solar from 150m to 300m by 2030.

Heidi Lee Douglas, chief executive of advocacy group Solar Citizens, called rooftop solar "the sleeping giant of global climate diplomacy". Her organisation is working with civil society groups in Japan, Taiwan, Pakistan, Vanuatu, Malaysia and Indonesia. In Australia, she is pushing to triple rooftop solar connected to storage by 2030 and double rooftop capacity over the next eight years.